Each half year Election Update records the results of or looks forward to national, presidential or important regional elections in European countries.
National Parliamentary Elections
- Slovenia: Held on March 22, 2026
This 2026 parliamentary election in Slovenia has concluded without a definitive winner. With over 99% of votes counted, Prime Minister Robert Golob’s liberal Freedom Movement obtained 29 seats in the 90-member assembly. The opposition right-wing populist Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) of Janez Janša secured 28 seats.
This marks a clear turnaround from just weeks ago when Golob appeared to be trailing. That earlier weakness reflected voter fatigue, internal divisions and a perception that his government had lost momentum. The late shift seems to have been driven by a parliamentary inquiry that revealed a corruption scandal involving centre-right parties, while allegations of foreign interference attempts also emerged. These seem to have a renewed fears of a Janša return, and reactivated parts of Golob’s 2022 coalition. Janša’s record in office then gave this argument tangible meaning for Slovenian voters, particularly given regional comparisons with Hungary. That makes Slovenia somewhat unusual, as this framing often lacks credibility elsewhere. Government formation remains open.
The most likely outcome is [a Golob led coalition with centre left partners], but this depends on negotiations in the coming days. An alternative would be [a Janša led bloc if he can assemble a broader right leaning alliance], though this currently looks less probable.
Presidential Elections
- Portugal: Two rounds held on January 18, 2026 (first round), and the second round on February 8
The centre left candidate won two thirds of the vote because other parties threw their weight behind Seguro. The situation with the populist Ventura and his Chega party seems rather similar to Reform. Both have risen sharply in the last few years (Chega on 7.2% in 2022 and 23.5% in 2025) the same platform of anti-immigrants however two big differences. FPTP in the UK gives Reform a shot at power whereas PR makes it much more difficult for Chega because no other party will work with them should they come first in parlimentary elections. Also, the current ruling party in Portugal is centre-right and is making moves to crack down on immigration and other issues fuelling Chega. They might be more successful in blunting Chega’s edge than the Labour party. The next election is not until 2029 if the current coalition can hold together.
Regional/Municipal Elections
- Spain: Aragonese regional election held on February 8th
The regional election in Aragon on 8 February 2026 serves as a critical bellwether for the Spanish general election due by August 22nd 2027. The results reveal a dominant but fractured right-wing bloc; while the People’s Party (PP) secured the most votes, their slight decline to 26 seats (-2) suggests a degree of “fatigue” that benefitted the far-right. Doubling its representation to 14 seats, Vox has transitioned from a satellite party to an indispensable partner, signaling that the PP may struggle to govern nationally without formal far-right coalitions.
Conversely, the “Sanchismo” brand suffered a historic blow. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s attempt to nationalise the race through Minister Pilar Alegría failed, as the PSOE recorded its poorest regional performance with only 18 seats (-5). This decline, alongside the total collapse of Podemos—which has now vanished from the Aragonese parliament—suggests the progressive bloc is disintegrating into smaller regionalist factions like the Aragonese Union (CHA). Ultimately, Aragon confirms a national trend: while the right is currently favoured to win the popular vote, systemic fragmentation makes a stable majority increasingly elusive.
Spain: Castilian-Leonese regional election on March 15
These regional elections in Castile and Leon are of great interest as a final litmus test before the 2027 national vote due before 22nd August 2027. Following recent advance of Vox in Aragon which confirmed PPs reliance on them would these results change this? In Castile and León, Vox did not deliver a clear breakthrough. Its vote share was broadly steady to slightly improved on past regional baselines, but it did not materially exceed expectations or shift the overall balance. In other words, it confirmed durability rather than momentum. That is important: Vox remains necessary for People’s Party majorities, but is not obviously on a trajectory to dominate the right.
The result in Castile and León is a mixed but broadly cautionary signal for Pedro Sánchez and the wider left ahead of 2027.
For Sánchez’s Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party, it reinforces a structural ceiling in large parts of the interior. The party can remain competitive, but struggles to build winning coalitions in regions with older, more rural and more conservative electorates. This matters nationally because it limits their ability to offset right wing strength outside major cities.
There is little evidence that Sánchez’s positioning against Donald Trump has materially shifted voting behaviour here.
For potential partners, the picture is more concerning. The continued fragility of the radical left, including Sumar, suggests that Sánchez cannot rely on a strong, cohesive bloc to his left. Even small losses in vote share can translate into meaningful seat losses under Spain’s electoral system, making coalition maths tighter.
However, the result does not close off a path to power. It points to a familiar formula: Sánchez’s route in 2027 likely depends less on expanding deep into conservative territory and more on maximising turnout in urban areas, maintaining unity across the left, and mobilising voters against the prospect of a Vox-influenced government. In short, viable but narrow, and heavily dependent on coalition discipline.
- France: Municipal elections between March 15-22, 2026
It was thought that the French municipal elections (just under 35,000 mayoral contests) on March 15 and 22, 2026, would serve as a critical barometer for the nation’s political climate just one year before the presidential vote. Would they indicate a breakthrough for Le Pen’s RN? This has not proved to be the case.
Where RN has made gains, these are concentrated in smaller towns and parts of the south, reinforcing its territorial base but not yet demonstrating broad urban appeal. Meanwhile, centre right and centre left groupings, though fragmented nationally, remain resilient locally through pragmatic alliances.
Taken together, these results suggest neither a clear increase nor decrease in the likelihood of an RN breakthrough in 2027. They confirm that RN remains competitive and entrenched, but also highlight structural barriers it faces under France’s two round system, especially in building second round coalitions. The decisive factors for 2027 are more likely to be national dynamics, leadership and turnout than municipal performance alone.
- Netherlands: Municipal elections held on March 18, 2026
The municipal elections took place in the aftermath of the fragmented 2025 general election in Netherlands, which produced no clear governing majority and prolonged coalition deadlock. The eventual outcome was an unusual minority government led by People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy, Democrats 66 and Christian Democratic Appeal, reflecting a partial reassertion of the traditional centre after years of electoral volatility. However, the strong showing of Party for Freedom under Geert Wilders, alongside gains for other non-traditional parties, underscored a deeply fragmented and polarised electorate. This left the new government governing without a stable parliamentary majority and reliant on issue-by-issue support, setting the stage for the municipal elections as an early test of whether voters would consolidate around centrist stability or continue to fragment.
These 2026 municipal elections broadly support the idea of cautious centrist recovery, but stop short of confirming a decisive shift away from fragmentation.
The governing centre, led by Democrats 66, People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy and Christian Democratic Appeal, held up reasonably well in many municipalities. While not delivering a sweeping endorsement, the results suggest voters are at least open to the current minority arrangement and have not decisively turned against it in its early months.
Party of Freedom led by Geert Wilders, remained a significant presence but did not achieve a major breakthrough at local level. This reinforces the pattern of being a strong national challenger but less effective in municipal contexts where coalition-building is essential.
The new Green–Labour alliance performed solidly, indicating some success in consolidating the left, though not yet enough to dominate.
Overall the elections suggest a partial stabilisation of the political centre rather than a clear realignment. The electorate appears pragmatic, prioritising local governance issues such as housing, while underlying national polarisation remains unresolved.